Monday, November 4, 2019

Economic down turn?

Is the economy going down ? I am not a economist .I am a consumer and have observed the following in the city where i live.
As a consumer i have observed that prices of food grains  started rising since Rajiv Gandhi's rule.It rose and rose and has sort of tanked now.Yet we[ middle class] were and are able to afford to pay the price then as well as now.It is ditto with clothes .
But what has changed in the past decade and more is  that persons with lower incomes , like those living in the  slum tenements opposite to my flat seem to be able to afford to war new clothes , not for just one or two main festivals like Deepavali Or Pongal but for nearly all festivals in the calender! The entire family wears it.There are multistoreyed shops in nearby Tnagar which have decent and nice looking clothes to every section of economic starta and they are mobbed before every festival. like Tamil new year, Navarathri, karthigai etc.
Crackers are costly yet they are bought and lit during Deepavali and then watch joyfully as money turns to ashes .All that which was affordable only by the middle or higher classes two or three decades back is now within the reach of  lower income groups.Indians as a whole seem to enjoy spending money , once they have it .
The recent crowds at Athi Varadhar festival in Kanchipurum , running into lakhs per day is the evidence to the fact that every one has information  in thier tips[mobiles . tv's ] and the money to spare to undertake the pilgrimage facilitated by good roads and transport facilities.The private transport like by car , vans , buses  etc out did the public transport .Every one doesn't refer only to city people but to villages as well as i saw  villagers and  people from small towns in very large numbers  .
In 1990'sthere was a sudden change in the economic conditions .The servant maids wearing rags and whose livelihood solely was dependant on what we gave , suddenly started to wear good polyester clothes  , carry handbags  as they found jobs in small factories that had also suddenly sprung up around us .in Porur.  IT offices and car manufacturing factories also sprung up and did super markets  .                                When i visited Tirumala the crowds had increased tremendously.I was amazed to see such crowds and very surprised to see that my milk man had bought  50 rs tickets for his entire family and was standing next to us.!In those days 50 rs ticket is equal to the 300 rs tickets that are available now.and i had thought that 50 rs ticket was within only our reach.Things had definitely changed .That milk man also used to hire a van and cart several families along with his, to Ooty and , camp there for few days!When i visited Brindavan gardens in Mysore which i remember from my childhood to be sparsely visited , in 1990's i was shocked by crowds of people milling and pushing around.

That breath taking changes in economic condition is missing now.Since 2010 i didn't see  any new offices coming up here in Tnagar .Many supermarkets  selling groceries cum house hold goods cum vegetables came up . so did health clubs, gyms but they all folded up in past 3 -5 years . But  corner stores that sell groceries are still around .and supermarkets that sell vegetables in Ac hall are still around .
There was a lot of hue and cry over introducing multi brand FDI in retail  when it was sought to be introduced few years back I   understood FDI in retail   to mean  that the supermarkets will have array of  products from various countries. I was greatly looking forward to buying things if the prices were reasonable. Why shouldn't I as a consumer get the best quality products from a  variety of products to choose from when i spend my money?..
Recently i searched for figurines /idols in white metal .but couldn't find any .The rage for white metals  seems to have abated and shops are no longer stacking them .The few of those i did find were not well crafted .and the eye to details was missing.Instead i found a figurine of Srinivasar in China clay made in China!..   I was amazed to see every minutest detail one sees in image of Srinivasar was carved out in clay!Nothing was amiss  viz ornaments,weapons Sri Devi Bhudevi on his chest etc except the fact that the face of the Srinivasar figurine had a slightly Chinese look .   There were figurines of other gods also made in China and reasonably priced  .                                                                                                                                               I wonder why no one has thought of selling flowers used in daily puja in such AC shops.  It is still the monopoly of street vendors .                                                                                                                      In the past 2 decades houses and flats came to be  constructed in a break neck speed  in suburbs of  Chennai swallowing all the green fields and also factories.In here at Tnagar many bungalows 0f British times dating back to 1900 were demolished and high end flats constructed .But now for past few years there are many buildings  that seem to have been abandoned half way in here.
It is puzzling to see how the govt struggles to acquire land for the benifit of  public whilst private property developers acquire huge swathes of land s, acres and acres of  even agricultural lands and mark layouts for housing colonies  with great ease .If one  travels beyond limits of Chennai one can see these innumerable layouts  dotting the landscape. 

But there have been some remarkable changes that has made travelling across the city and shopping easier.The sudden profusion of  uber ola etc in past few years has made travelling within city pleasurable .earlier we had to book a tourist car if we planned to  travel across the city and that came at a high price Minimum was rs 500 whether it was for a km or 50 kms .Autos were available but one has to bargain with them as they refuse to use the meter and the journey turns unpleasant with all that arguments and justifications.This new way of travelling is nice .One needs a smart phone but nearly every one seems to a have one .The fee  is very  reasonable and it is as per distance travelled  .There is no haggling, which is a great relief and the journey in a Ac car  to those who do not own cars adds  to one's prestige and social standing.
This concept seems to have caught up earlier and faster in Bangalore where even uber , ola autos are available easily unlike in here .
Next is the wide spread use of cards instead of money in shops.Having  been used to carrying  cash i found it difficult to let go of the feel of the security of  a wad of cash in my purse for a thin card .To feel cash was very important to assure me of my spending status and it was also coupled with the fear that i may spend more than what i intend to if i use a card  .Gradually i found that using a debit card in heavy transactions [for me] like buying jewellery or silk Saree's  was easier, than first drawing money and then  carrying it in person and to hold the bulging purse  tightly  lest it  be  pick pocketed .But the fear that i may spend more than if i had cash is still very much there as the temptation to spend  more whilst carrying a card is very strong.
Another dramatic change is scooters whizzing past delivering snacks, food etc ,apart from pizza  from popular restaurants to one's home.This trend of ordering food from home seems very popular with youngsters  .This reminds me of the courier services that suddenly took us by storm doing away with our immense reliance upon postal system .There were courier  offices at every nook and corner similar to xerox shops but now many of the small offices which were near at hand have all been closed down ,Ditto with xerox shops .Those that have survived are those xerox shops that combine document typing with it.

OK has inflation affected me?Not much.Has it affected those living in front?It doesn't seem so.Not in the way they dress or eat.All are decently clad and look healthy and stout.All have two wheelers and i see bullet motorbike a very costly motorbike driven in droves in Chennai .I even  see  fellows clad in dirty lungis and dirtier banians driving down majestically upon these noisy beasts down my road .By the look of it  these fellows appear like those living in cramped  huts on pavements .Several houses in opposite tenements have AC's but they are yet to reach our level where each of us have more than one.

Regarding down turn in auto sales.Earlier on cars could have been bought out of black money ,People were buying a car for each one of the family. With demonetization maybe circulation of black money is hit  or curbed and there fore there is a slump in demand..It is a blessing in disguise .Our roads will be freer . therefore lesser traffic jams and air around us in cities and towns  will be less polluted .

Some econmists say that heavy spending on social welfare schemes leads to stagnation in development of economy.I have no idea as to how that affects economic development  .But i have observed that successive govts at centre or in here spend a lot on social welfare schemes .freebies like tv laptops etc are offered to entice voters.My only angst is that  why should a person to be in power use resources of the govt which is common to all of us ,use it for self aggrandisement?But that is how it is .Since i am not in the receiving end of such schemes and promises i am questioning it but what if i belong to the category that is  in receipt of such free goods, food, health,reservations etc , i would welcome it and vote for such parties  and not bother about ethics , nation first etc.How much ever economists bleat against excessive spending on welfare schemes i doubt whether it will toned down in near future .

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